Israel has had more than a flavor of what it can mean to leave hostile groups in control of lands adjacent to its own borders in southern Lebanon and in Gaza. Any similar move to totally cede control to the Palestinians of the West Bank or a part of Jerusalem would carry immense risk.

U.S. policy since 1967, developed under President Johnson, included the idea that the so-called ’67 borders were incapable of providing Israel with adequate defense and would change.

President Obama came into office with strong preconceptions about foreign policy and especially about the Arab-Israeli conflict. The main result of the administration’s new policy was to encourage the Palestinians to take more hard-line positions. Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas began to insist on preconditions for direct negotiations which never existed before.

Jerusalem has a population of 800,000 people today, which will grow to a million people twenty years from now. The current population ratio is one-third Muslim, two-thirds Jewish, and two percent Christian. In the next twenty years, we anticipate a need for 50,000 apartments – one-third for the Arab population and two-thirds for the Jewish population. Jerusalem must stay united. There is not one example in the world of a divided city that ever worked.

A ship that clearly intends to breach a lawful blockade may be stopped when it is still on the high seas. Stopping the flotilla heading for Gaza in international waters 100 kilometers from Israel was not illegal; in time of armed conflict, ships intending to breach the blockade may be searched even on the high seas. Israel is in full compliance with international law because it fulfilled all of the conditions for a lawful blockade.

The PLO platform, as reaffirmed in the Fatah Congress in August 2009, states that their struggle will not stop until the Zionist entity is eliminated and Palestine is liberated. As a logical corollary, they refuse to accept Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people. The Palestinian leadership insists that negotiations now start at the point they had reached with Olmert at the end of 2008. That means they are not satisfied with what was put on the table a year ago. They want more than that

Hizbullah is not a national Lebanese movement, as has been frequently claimed in the West. Hizbullah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his men are not loyal to the president of Lebanon or to the government of Lebanon, but rather to Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The Egyptians have effectively manipulated the Iranian issue in order to advance their long-term nuclear objectives vis-a-vis Israel, and have created a new linkage between Iran and Israel. Yet even if Israel did not exist, Iran would still be racing to develop nuclear weapons to further its own ambitions.

The Arab Gulf states are feeling compelled to adopt an appeasement policy toward Tehran while with increasing dread they helplessly follow the nuclear crisis, epitomized by Iranian determination and aggression in the face of American weakness.

Today there is an internal battle among Turkish Muslims between forces that want to be part of the Western world and those that want to return Turkey's political identity to be based primarily on Islamic solidarity. But it isn't Ottoman Islam that these Islamist Turks seek to revive. Their Islam is more in tune with the fanatically anti-Western principles of Saudi Wahhabi Islam.

As a result of the June 1967 Six-Day War, Israel entered the eastern parts of Jerusalem and the West Bank in a war of self-defense. It is very important to recall that Israel entered these areas after it was attacked, and after it requested that the Jordanians not join the Egyptian war effort.

In February, Syrian President Bashad Assad hosted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Damascus. Afterward, Hizbullah's online magazine suggested that war with Israel was on the horizon. Damascus' support for "resistance" was on full display at the Arab Summit in Libya in late March, where Assad urged Palestinian leader Mahmou dAbbas to abandon U.S.-supported negotiations and "take up arms against Israel."

The Iranians learned a great deal from the destruction of Iraq’s Osirak reactor by the Israel Air Force in 1981. They dispersed their nuclear program, putting much of it deep underground. There is no single target which, if destroyed, would substantially set back the Iranian nuclear program.

To grasp Iran’s ambitions and foreign policy it is necessary to understand the Islamic Republic’s religious ideology which aspires to establish global Islamic rule – under Shi’ite leadership. This belief lies at the heart of Iran’s foreign policy, including its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons.

Regional cooperation begins with resuming negotiations with the Palestinians. In the interests of achieving a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace, Israel sees the economic domain as one of the cornerstones of good relations.

There is no army in the world that will endanger its soldiers in order to avoid hitting the warned neighbors of an enemy or terrorist. Israel should favor the lives of its own soldiers over the lives of the well-warned neighbors of a terrorist when it is operating in a territory that it does not effectively control, because in such territories it does not bear the moral responsibility for properly separating between dangerous individuals and harmless ones.

In the West there is a growing trend to view Hamas as separate from al-Qaeda in order to open a political dialogue with Hamas, but is this view correct? Hamas was founded in 1987 as the Palestinian wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood still defines its goal as "a world Islamic state."

Israel must simultaneously pursue three interdependent tracks for advancing Israeli-Palestinian relations: capacity-building measures that foster the rule of law within the Palestinian Authority, regional economic cooperation, and meaningful political dialogue.

Hizbullah’s alleged move toward pragmatism is based to a large extent on an Iranian decision to create a new atmosphere in Lebanon that will allow it to work unmolested. Iran is looking for strict silence in the Lebanese arena in order to enable Hizbullah to reconstruct its strategic capabilities (including long-range rockets and missiles) in Lebanon in order to make use of these capabilities at a time to be determined by Tehran.

According to the 1993 Oslo Agreements, Jerusalem is one of the issues to be discussed in future permanent status negotiations. The Swedish move to have the European foreign ministers back a declaration recognizing eastern Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state clearly pre-judges the outcome of those talks.

Two factors have led to Turkey’s shift away from Israel and toward Syria. First, Turkey no longer needed Israeli assistance to pressure the Syrian government to change its policy of providing safe-haven to the terrorist Kurdish Worker’s Organization (PKK). Second, in the past seven years, once secular Turkish politics have undergone a profound Islamist transformation.

The Swedish daily Aftonbladet (AB) published an article suggesting that the Israeli army and medical establishment had colluded to harvest organs from Palestinians and sell them overseas. AB may have won the battle over what it is allowed to print, but it has most certainly lost the war over what should be written.

The one-sided establishment of a Palestinian state would contravene a key provision of the Oslo Interim Agreement, according to which: “Neither side shall initiate or take any step that will change the status of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip pending the outcome of the permanent status agreement.”

On June 28 and 29, 2009, the Goldstone Commission recorded Palestinian statements at the UNRWA headquarters in Gaza City. This study is an analysis of the four main statements, the way the commission interpreted them, and reports from other Palestinian sources which contradict the testimony presented to the commission.

In 2003-2005, Tehran engaged with the EU-3 for two years, exploiting the talks to race ahead with construction of key uranium enrichment facilities, while fending off punitive measures by the UN Security Council for three entire years. Iran today is far more advanced than it was then and the time for diplomatic experimentation is extremely limited.

The human rights organizations which reported on Palestinian casualties in Gaza failed to mention the affiliation of hundreds of Palestinian security personnel who were members of terrorist organizations and who were trained fighters, thus artificially inflating the list of “civilians” killed by the IDF. Among the 343 members of the Palestinian security forces who were killed, 286 have been identified as terror organization members (83 percent).

Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at an almost feverish pace with impressive achievements. The solid-propellant Sejil missile signifies a breakthrough. Iran will face no significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejil to put most of the EU under threat.

To what extent will Fatah’s Sixth General Congress advance or retard the prospects for re-launching the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Is Fatah going to waive its historical principle of “armed struggle” and devote itself to peace negotiations based on compromise? Fatah’s “Internal Order” document retains the armed struggle as a strategy in order to liberate the whole of Palestinian and eliminate Israel.

The desire in Washington and Riyadh to repair damaged relations with Damascus is admirable, but should not come at the expense of Lebanon and the larger U.S. strategic goal of weakening Iranian influence in the Levant. While a diplomatic rapprochement with Syria might result in some marginal improvements in its behavior, this would likely have little impact on Syria’s thirty-year strategic relationship with Tehran.

The Sheikh Jarrah-Mt. Scopus area - the focus of a dispute between the Obama administration and Israel over building housing units in the Shepherd Hotel compound - has been a mixed Jewish-Arab area for many years. Many observers incorrectly assume that Jerusalem is comprised of two ethnically homogenous halves: Jewish western Jerusalem and Arab eastern Jerusalem. Yet in the eastern part of Jerusalem there are today some 200,000 Jews and 270,000 Arabs living in intertwined neighborhoods.

While Prime Minister Salam Fayyad’s stellar reputation in the West as a reformer-statesman continues to inspire confidence among U.S. security officials and donor nations, he does not have the political base to succeed in the long term. Moreover, Washington’s notion that reformed political power can be purchased is naïve. Furthermore, Fayyad has continued to pay monthly salaries to nearly 12,000 Hamas Executive Force members, the same force that fought IDF troops in the recent Gaza war.

In seeking to constrain Israeli settlement activity, the U.S. is essentially trying to obtain additional Israeli concessions that were not formally required according to Israel's legal obligations under the Oslo Accords. The U.S. and Israel have already negotiated specific guidelines for settlement activity so that it will not diminish the territory of a future Palestinian entity.

The E-1 area, part of the city of Maale Adumim located immediately adjacent to Jerusalem, is largely uninhabited, state-owned land. A construction plan supported by every Israeli prime minister since Yitzhak Rabin would link Maale Adumim and its 36,000 residents to Jerusalem.
Without control of E-1, a Palestinian belt of construction will threaten Jerusalem from the east and undermine Israel’s control of the Jerusalem-Jericho road, a major artery of paramount strategic importance in time of w

Al Jazeera, the most viewed satellite channel in the Arab world, has become a weapon in the hands of the ambitious Emir of Qatar who may be driven by the Muslim Brothers and who is threatening the stability of the Middle East. With the Muslim Brothers increasingly aligned in recent years with Iran, by repeatedly attacking the Sunni Arab regimes and inciting against them, Al Jazeera is serving as an important instrument for Tehran and its effort to undermine their internal stability.

There are voices in the Obama Administration who believe that the Kremlin is able and willing to exert pressure on Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, perceived geopolitical and economic benefits in the unstable Persian Gulf, in which American influence is on the wane, outweigh Russia's concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran. The Kremlin sees Iran not as a threat but as a partner or an ad-hoc ally to challenge U.S. influence.

Germany has been increasingly forced to confront "homegrown" Islamist terrorism, the threat of radicalized converts to Islam, and the threat of non-integrated Muslim immigrants. In 2003, Iranian-backed Hizbullah was found to have identified Israeli, Jewish, and American facilities in Germany as terror targets. Which are the prominent radical Islamic groups operating in Germany?

An imbalanced EU position paper on Jerusalem written in December 2008, and recently leaked to the media, completely ignores Israel’s historical and legal rights to its capital. The EU attack refers primarily to the City of David, located just beyond Jerusalem’s Old City walls, an area identified by archaeologists and historians as the location of King David’s capital some 3,000 years ago.

The U.S. government can use Arab governments’ insecurity regarding Iran as leverage to encourage real reform. This is particularly true for Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia – now engaged in the ideological fight of their lives with Iran and its reactionary allies.

The core question is to whom does this country belong? According to the Arab narrative, this has been an Arab Islamic state since the days of Omar, the caliph who conquered the country in the seventh century. According to the Islamic approach, since Islam began in 622 CE, all of history before that time has no meaning or significance.

In early March, two senior U.S. officials traveled to Damascus for the highest-level bilateral meeting in years, part of the new administration’s policy of “engagement.” Based on Syria’s track record, there is little reason to be optimistic that the Obama administration will succeed where others have failed. Damascus today remains a brutal dictatorship, which derives its regional influence almost exclusively through its support for terrorism in neighboring states.

While the outlines of a two-state solution are generally known, the maximum that any government of Israel will be ready to offer the Palestinians and still survive politically is much less than the minimum that any Palestinian leader can accept. So while the two-state solution is a very nice slogan, it cannot be achieved in the foreseeable future. We can either stay in the same situation and try to manage the conflict, or we can try to think of some other solution.

The Mumbai attacks have been linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and radical Islamic groups in Kashmir generally. Yet it would be a mistake to see Lashkar only as a local organization with only a local agenda. Saudi Arabia has contributed very much to what Lashkar-e-Taiba looks like, how it thinks, its motivation, ideology, and funding. Saudi Arabia presents itself as the protector and the spearhead of the defense of Muslims around the world against what they define as the Western cultural attack.

As of January 1, 2009, the Czech Republic took over the role of the Presidency of the European Union. On January 3, the presidency described the Israeli ground operations in Gaza as an act of self-defense. Israel should try to make the most of the current situation, since the upcoming Swedish presidency, which starts on July 1, 2009, will most likely be a more difficult time for Israel.

The Middle East that Senator George Mitchell will confront today is much changed from the one he wrestled with eight years ago as chairman of the committee to investigate the outbreak of the Second Intifada. The 2001 Mitchell Report was issued before the 9/11 al-Qaeda attack, prior to the capture of two weapons-laden ships bound for Gaza, and before Hamas’ coup in Gaza. Hamas' alliance with Iran and its affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood mark it as an enemy of moderate Arab regimes.

It is of prime importance to prevent Iran from acquiring influence in post-war Gaza through any assistance programs.
Israel and the international community should transform the Palestinian Authority into the principal factor, along with Egypt, entrusted with the rehabilitation work in Gaza.

The Palestinians are but the latest lightning rod unleashed against the Jews, their supposed victimization reaffirming the millenarian demonization of the Jews in general, and the medieval blood libel - that Jews delight in the blood of others.

The charge that Israel uses disproportionate force keeps resurfacing whenever it has to defend its citizens from non-state terrorist organizations and the rocket attacks they perpetuate. From a purely legal perspective, Israel’s current military actions in Gaza are on solid ground. According to international law, Israel is not required to calibrate its use of force precisely according to the size and range of the weaponry used against it.

While moving Syria into the Western camp would be a great accomplishment, it's not clear that this development would necessarily constitute a long-term strategic setback for Iranian efforts to undermine U.S. policy in Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, and Iraq. In the absence of Syria, Iran would still be capable of supporting Hizbullah, Hamas, and its Shiite allies in Iraq.

Today there is unprecedented military and intelligence cooperation between Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran. There is no "smuggling" of weapons from Iran through Syria to Lebanon, because it is not done in secret. Weapons of all kinds are being pushed toward Hizbullah, including tens of thousands of rockets.

Israel is one of the leading countries in the world in developing technologies to produce electricity through renewable energy, mostly in the solar field. The National Infrastructures Ministry envisions a plan up to the year 2020 that will guarantee energy in the coming decades based on 40 percent natural gas, 40 percent coal, and up to 20 percent renewable energy.

Hamas influence in Jordan and the West Bank is rising. Iran and Russia are moving to reshape the Middle East. At the same time, Jordan fears it cannot trust the political will of its traditional allies as Israel has diplomatically engaged Jordan’s adversaries – Syria and Hamas.

The Iranian regime’s expanding political and military involvement across the Middle East and South Asia is a force to be reckoned with. We need to wake up and understand the implications of this matter, not just for Israel but for the United States as well. History has taught us that failing to act when threatened by a deadly foe like Iran usually ends in an avoidable tragedy.

From Oslo to Annapolis, we have engaged in a top-down strategy. We aimed to reach a political horizon or a final settlement agreement with the Palestinian leadership, hoping that political reform among Palestinians would follow. I propose we replace this approach with a bottom-up strategy in which the PA first proves its willingness and ability to govern.

Asharq Alawsat reported on August 18, 2008, that Hizbullah operatives were involved in attacks against U.S. and Iraqi forces in four Iraqi provinces. In June 2006, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield disclosed that Hizbullah cadres had attacked U.S.-led coalition forces in Iraq. Hizbullah units claimed responsibility for operations against coalition forces and Iraqi security personnel as early as the latter part of 2005.

According to an informal estimate by Israeli security bodies, about 50 percent of the terrorists freed for any reason whatsoever returned to the path of terror, either as a perpetrator, a planner, or as an accomplice. In the terror acts committed by these freed terrorists, hundreds of Israelis were murdered, and thousands were wounded.

Hamas has established a terror hothouse in Gaza designed to continue the jihad against apostates, pursue the struggle against Israel, secure the overthrow of the Abbas regime in the West Bank, and assist the efforts of the parent movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, in overthrowing the moderate regimes in the Middle East headed by Jordan and Egypt.

Russia’s long-term strategic goals include increasing its control of the Caucasus, especially over strategic energy pipelines. Russian continental power is on the rise. Israel should understand it and not provoke Moscow unnecessarily, while defending its own national security interests staunchly. Small states need to treat nuclear armed great powers with respect.

The core layer of Google Earth should be ideology free and not serve as a platform for indoctrination or a campaign to wipe Israel off the virtual map.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera (April 26, 2008), Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal clarified that for Hamas, a tahdiya is “a tactic in conflict management.” He added that it “is not unusual for the resistance...to escalate sometimes and to retreat a bit sometimes as the tide does....The tahdiya creates a formulation that will force Israel...to remove the siege...and if it happens it will be a remarkable achievement.”

In April 1948, one month before Israel declared independence, Robert Kennedy, then 22, traveled to Palestine to report on the conflict for the Boston Post. His four dispatches from the scene were published in June 1948. The newspaper closed in 1956, and for decades the reports were virtually forgotten.

When Israel announced on May 21, 2008, that it had officially resumed negotiations with Syria in Turkey, not surprisingly, the Assad regime merely pocketed this diplomatic gain, providing no sign that it had any intention to meet Israeli requirements. It does not make sense for Israel to be pushing ahead with negotiations now.

Israeli negotiators will quickly discover three core areas in their discussions with the Syrians that they will not resolve easily: delineation of an agreed boundary, security arrangements, and the Syrian-Iranian alliance. The U.S. has given Israel repeated diplomatic assurances in the past that Israel will not have to come down from the Golan Heights.

While the hope that Hamas could somehow be lured away from its genocidal agenda seems to be gaining wider currency, not only is the destruction of Israel not a bargaining chip, it is the heart of the matter. Hamas, the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, sees Palestine as but one battle in a worldwide holy war to prevent the fall of a part of the House of Islam to infidels.

The three primary generators of Middle East radicalism and extremism are Iran’s “Shia Crescent,” the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Global Jihad. Iran is Persian, ideologically and historically different from the Arab world. Yet if Iran gets its hands on nuclear weapons in the future, the threatened pro-Western regimes of the Arab world may decide to join it and not fight it.

In recent years, an intense effort has been made by American-based academics to portray Ayatollah Mohamad Hussein Fadlallah, the most important religious authority among the Shiites of Lebanon and the Gulf states, as a moderate religious leader. Yet Fadlallah praised the massacre of eight Israeli students at Mercaz Ha-Rav Yeshiva in Jerusalem on March 6.

The 2005 Gaza disengagement provided Hamas with a sense of empowerment and self-confidence that led to a clear-cut escalation in the employment of the rocket capabilities that they had previously acquired. As long as the Philadelphi route is open for Hamas smuggling, the risk to Israel will grow as Iran exports rockets of increasing range to Gaza. The port of Ashdod is the next likely target, but should Fajr rockets reach Gaza, there is no reason why Hamas cannot pose a threat to Tel Aviv.

International law does not require Israel to supply Gaza with fuel or electricity, or, indeed, with any other materials, goods, or services. Dependence on foreign supply does not create a legal duty to continue the supply. Absent specific treaty requirements, countries may cut off oil sales to other countries at any time.

In the summer of 2007, the Muslim Waqf in Jerusalem requested authorization to dig a ditch dozens of meters long to replace power lines on the Temple Mount. Subsequently, the Israel Antiquities Authority issued details about the uncovering of a “sealed stratum of human activity,” a layer of earth with pottery shards found broken in situ, where they had remained without change since the days of the First Temple.

Iran has been using its state institutions as agents of the terror activity it perpetrates throughout the world. The funding for this terror activity is partly provided via Bank Melli and sometimes also via Bank Saderat. It would be extremely unfortunate if French courts decide to unfreeze Iranian funds in Paris that were originally frozen because of U.S. court rulings about Iranian funding of terrorist attacks.

Gaza has transformed from its prior status as part of the Palestinian Authority to its new role as a mini-state that is now an integral part of the Arab world. Since the border opening, weapons have flowed unimpeded into Gaza, enabling the transfer of higher-grade weapons such as anti-aircraft missiles.

A careful examination of the relevant law demonstrates that Israeli counterstrikes to date conform to the requirements of international law. Moreover, Palestinian commission of war crimes and acts considered under international conventions to be terrorist acts and acts of genocide require Israel and other countries to take steps to punish Palestinian criminals for their acts in the Gaza fighting.

Any distinction between Iranian military and civilian nuclear programs is artificial. Once they have enough enriched uranium, they will be 3-6 months away from building a nuclear bomb if they decide to do so. Ironically, the NIE opens the way for Iran to achieve its military nuclear ambitions without any interference.

The December “surprise” resulting from the publication of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate disrupted fifteen years of Israeli policy based on working with the international coalition to pressure Iran to drop its nuclear weapons program through sanctions and the threat of military action, and has reminded Israelis of the limits of American security guarantees and strategic cooperation.

In reality, there is no fundamental difference between the ultimate goals of Hamas and the PLO: Neither accepts the Jewish state’s right to exist and both are committed to its eventual destruction. By categorically refusing to recognize Israel’s Jewishness, the Palestinian leadership has effectively rejected the two-state solution, based, in the words of the UN partition resolution of November 29, 1947, on the creation of “independent Arab and Jewish States” in Palestine.

The next round in Gaza will look more like Lebanon than what Israel faced in Operation Defensive Shield in Judea and Samaria in 2002 or in previous rounds in Gaza. Israel should reoccupy the Philadelphi corridor between Egypt and Gaza and should stay there until we have had a peaceful relationship with the Palestinians for at least 25 years.

Israel, the prime potential target for a nuclear Iran, cannot afford to take the chance of underestimating the threat, and therefore relies on what policy-makers refer to as a “worst-case” analysis. This means that the focus is on Iranian capabilities, rather than intentions, which can only be guessed.

We should be very realistic about what we can get from Syria. Syria is not about to become a close ally of the United States and part of what we call the moderate camp in the region.

The Bush Letter of April 14, 2004, received by Israel as a quid pro quo for the Gaza Disengagement, introduced new elements into the Israeli-Palestinian peace process that completely superseded the Clinton proposals. It is critical for Israeli diplomacy to protect the Bush Letter against those who seek to replace it with a new set of Israeli-Palestinian documents.

Three hours after the September 6 incident involving Israel and Syria, the Iranian government sent a warning to Turkey saying that if it was involved in support of Israel and the U.S., Turkey would not get away unscathed. Iran is not exporting its Shi’ism into Turkey, but it is exporting radical Islam into Turkey, feeding it to the Sunni population. In 1999 after a major earthquake in Turkey, Israel was the first nation to come to the rescue and they saved many lives.

Should fighting terrorism be based on reaction or on pre-emption? Since there is an ongoing war, since the threat is permanent, since the intention of the enemy in this case is to annihilate you, the right doctrine is one of pre-emption and not of reaction. What is the point even morally to wait and only do something when the enemy comes to attack?

El-Baradei’s complicity in the Iranian effort to acquire nuclear weapons is counterproductive. If the IAEA and El-Baradei were to join in the effort to warn and deter the Iranian regime, it might still be possible to halt the uranium enrichment and similar activities, without needing to use force.

The current elites define Russia’s strategic goals as being in opposition to the United States and its policies. The Moscow propaganda machine is only a step away from putting Israel on the “short list” of designated enemies. Jerusalem’s relationship with Moscow may deteriorate if Russia continues to treat Israel as an American satellite state.

With Gaza currently a radical Islamic stronghold, and the West Bank in danger of becoming the next one, Israel’s funneling a billion dollars into local or international bank accounts on behalf of the Palestinian Authority would be tantamount to Israel’s bankrolling terror against itself. An urgent review is required of the far-reaching security implications of an Israeli decision to purchase Gaza gas.

The memory of Islamic rule in Spain has become increasingly part of the discourse in radical Islam. The very same principle invoked for waging war against Israel - recovery of what was once Islamic territory - is being applied to Spain, the Balkans, Southern Russia, and India. Israel, therefore, is a small link in the greater confrontation between radical Islam and the West.

The Roadmap insists in Phase I that “all official Palestinian institutions end incitement against Israel.” The current effort of Secretary of State Rice to facilitate Israeli-Palestinian negotiations for a November 2007 joint declaration in Washington over the parameters of a future Palestinian state essentially circumvents the Bush administration’s own 2003 Roadmap sequence.

Syria served as a primary conduit for the build-up of Iranian-backed Hizbullah prior to the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War in July 2006. Damascus supplied the majority of the heavy-payload rockets Hizbullah fired at Israel. Syria has undertaken a massive military build-up over the past few years and has become a regional superpower in chemical weaponry.

Turkey’s secular system will continue to be challenged as the Islamic Justice and Development Party (the AKP) gradually pulls Islamic values further into public life. Anti-Americanism has become rampant. Anti-Israel feelings are also pervasive, and after terrorist attacks against two Istanbul synagogues and anti-Semitic articles in the media, many Turkish Jews live in fear.

Hamas is trying to improve its image in the eyes of the West, arguing that it is succeeding in restoring public order in Gaza. In the West - and even in Israel - there are voices calling for a dialogue with Hamas. Providing legitimacy to Hamas as an acceptable political partner - without any preconditions regarding its renunciation of terrorism - is essentially a "green light" to Hamas to continue to provide sanctuary for al-Qaeda affiliates in Gaza.

Recent Iranian implied threats to “liberate” some of the Gulf states, and an Iranian editorial calling Bahrain a district of Iran, have caused great consternation in the Gulf states. In Iran's view, every region of the Gulf is essentially Persian and not Arab; moreover, a large Shiite population lives in the Gulf. In the eyes of the Arab states, the threat to wipe the Sunni world from the map is graver than the Iranian promise to annihilate Israel.

What should Israel do at this stage? Nothing. There is no one to deal with on a serious basis on the Palestinian side. Israel should not repeat the mistake of unilateralism, when Israel left Gaza to Hamas and Islamic Jihad and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups.

Iran's national interest would be to regard Israel as a strategic ally and partner because Iran does not want a Middle East which is entirely Arab. But the Islamic Republic wants to lead the Muslim world, create an Islamic superpower, and save mankind from a Judeo-Christian conspiracy.

Despite Iran's enormous oil and gas reserves, ironically, one of its most glaring areas of vulnerability is in the economic sphere. Iran is a country whose revenues stem almost completely from the export of crude oil. Yet the international sanctions imposed so far do not indicate that there has been any serious mobilization for a real struggle against the Iranian nuclear bomb.

If one sees one’s adversaries storing rockets and conducting a massive buildup of forces, the first thing one should expect is for them to use those forces. What we see in Gaza is similar to what we saw in Lebanon. Israel withdrew from Gaza over a year go, uprooting all the Israeli settlements, and since then Hamas and other terrorist organizations have been rapidly building up their forces.

In many ways, people are still fixated on a model of the Middle East that has now become obsolete. For the last quarter of a century we have been in the midst of a conflict with militant Islam, which seeks to assume power and deliver a corrective to the historical decline of Islam and the rise of the West. The first major victory was when the Iranian Ayatollah regime displaced the Shah in 1979.

In taking the position of “international peace envoy” for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Mr. Blair will need to change the basic political parameters in order to avoid another catastrophic failure. Most importantly, this will require abandoning the widely held images of Palestinian victimization and demonization of Israel.

With the total collapse of Fatah in Gaza and the territory’s takeover by Hamas, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been giving serious consideration to the deployment of international forces in the Gaza Strip generally, and more specifically in the sensitive Philadelphi Corridor separating Gaza from Egyptian Sinai. A deeper look reveals that the international-forces idea is very dangerous with potentially grave results for Israel.

Despite terror and war, the Israeli economy has one of the highest per capita growth rates in the Western world among all the states established between 1948 and 1974. If there had been no terror in 2000-2005, the economy would have continued to grow and would have almost reached where it is today as early as 2003.

Following major terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda against housing compounds inhabited by foreign and Arab oil experts in 2003, the Saudi regime launched a major onslaught against the al-Qaeda-led Saudi fundamentalists. Gradually the regime succeeded in eroding the ranks of the Afghanistan war veterans who comprised the operational leadership of the organization.

During the last ten years we have had to deal with a new player in the Middle East, Iran – the biggest terror state in the world today. Khaled Mashaal, the external leader of Hamas, started to increase the level of coordination and cooperation with Iran in 2001 and is trying to implement the Iranian strategy toward Israel in Gaza, in the same way as Hassan Nasrallah is implementing the Iranian strategy in Lebanon.

Al-Qaeda generally thrives wherever central authority of governments is collapsing and therefore its current success in the war-torn Gaza Strip should not come as a surprise. Just after Israel’s unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip in August 2005, there were reports that al-Qaeda had exploited the new security vacuum that had been created and begun to dispatch its operatives to this territory.

Nicolas Sarkozy’s victory is a defeat for the old ideological Left that has been appearing to many French voters as increasingly obsolete since the collapse of the communist Soviet Union. It also marks a crushing defeat for the extreme anti-Semitic Right and for all the extremists in the Muslim world, and sounds a clear warning to all who violate law and order among the immigrants in France.

In general terms, the Winograd Commission Report dealt mostly with the flaws in the decision-making process in Israel. However, the report contains important insights into the strategic thinking that was predominant in the Israeli political-military leadership from the time of Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon until the outbreak of hostilities in July 2006, with the advent of the Second Lebanon War.

Disengagement caused the terror organizations to turn to new terror methods such as Kassam rockets, tunnels, and crossing over from Gaza to Sinai and then into the Negev, as happened in January 2007 with a Palestinian suicide bomber in Eilat. It is now possible for terrorists to move freely between Gaza and Egypt, and from there to Syria, Lebanon, and Iran for training.

In the past, Israel did not have to pay the price of rhetorically accepting full withdrawal in order to gain a diplomatic dialogue with the Arab world. The basis of the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference was UN Security Council Resolution 242. The Madrid conference also produced a multilateral track that led to direct diplomatic contacts between Israel and the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. If 242 was sufficient in 1991, why is it not good enough for 2007?

Tehran pays 100 percent of the Islamic Jihad budget and gives a bonus for every Israeli murdered. In addition, through Hizbullah Iran pays the Al Aqsa Brigade, which belongs to Fatah in name only. Iran imports 40 percent of its consumption of refined oil products. An embargo on gasoline could create a very serious problem for the regime. In addition, Iran is dependent on the flow of money and credit from Europe, which could be severed.

Russia has been increasing its sales of weapons to Middle Eastern countries, as well as to rogue and semi-rogue states. Russia is using the sale of weapons and nuclear reactors today the way imperial Germany used railroads before World War One - to attract allies, bolster influence, and undermine the dominant power in the Middle East. Russia aims at becoming an alternative world superpower and is increasingly at odds with or opposed to the U.S. and the West.

Since it has now been ruled that states can be tried for genocide, a case can probably be brought under the Genocide Convention against Iran since Article III of the Genocide Convention describes incitement to genocide as a punishable act. The ICJ ruling may have applicability to the Palestinian Authority, as well. The Charter of Hamas, the leading party in the PA, calls for genocide.

There is a growing strategic alliance between Iran and the radical Palestinian forces in the territories. Iran is involved in supporting both the Islamic factions and Fatah, as well. Today, at least 40 percent of Fatah’s different fighting groups are also paid by Hizbullah and Iran. Hamas thinks it can build a new southern Lebanon in Gaza, and this is what it is busy doing.

Senior Israeli military and intelligence officials have with a high degree of certainty linked Iran’s senior leadership with direct involvement over the past fifteen years in Qods Force operations against Israel. The Qods Force carries out these types of military operations across the Middle East, to export the revolution and establishing an “Iranian Shiite crescent” through which Iran could assert regional hegemony.

Originally, Islamic Jihad was actually a purely Fatah offshoot, part and parcel of the military apparatus of Arafat’s deputy, Abu Jihad, who, as his name may convey, was the major promoter of Islamic features in Fatah. During the first Lebanon war, Abu Jihad followers helped Iran establish Hizbullah on the ruins of the Fatah infrastructure that Israel had destroyed in the war.

The Mecca agreement between Hamas and Fatah does not presage a favorable diplomatic turn. It is merely a tactical political measure calculated to create a false impression regarding Hamas’ political flexibility in order to whitewash the organization into being accepted as a legitimate player in the international arena without it having to meet the three preconditions of the Quartet.

The Islamic fundamentalist war against Israeli and Jewish existence in the Middle East - which is being waged by both Hizbullah and Hamas - did not begin in 1967, and it is not going to end even if Israel redeploys along the 1967 lines. Hardly anybody in Israel thinks that if we give territories now, we will get peace in return.

Listen carefully to Ahmadinejad. He is not insane. He embodies very accurately the nature of the Iranian regime and he is gaining popularity among Muslims. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, sitting in Damascus where he is supported by Iran and Syria, controls the military wing of Hamas and is more powerful than PA Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh. Mashaal is responsible for the money, for the policy of terror, and he holds many cards relating to Israel's abducted soldier in Gaza.

What type of political system does the Arab world want to have? Normal statehood, or a belligerent “resistance” in which the state is only a platform to provide infrastructure and services to the “resistance.” This is an inter-Arab decision, and neither Israel nor the international community can make this decision for the Arabs. There are currently three active “resistances” in the Arab world: the Iraqi “resistance,” Hizballah, and the Palestinian “resistance.”

What is the real mood of the Israeli people after the war? It is that we are not suckers and we are not going to make the same mistake again. We are not going to put ourselves in danger if it is not necessary. We unilaterally retreated from Lebanon and didn't retaliate for six years, and in the end we found Hizbullah in a stronger position to fight against us. When Israel retreated from Gaza what was the result? More Kassam rockets on Sderot and Ashkelon.

Israel should not try to second-guess U.S. decisions about putting American soldiers in harm’s way. However, the specific strategy that the Baker-Hamilton report proposes for facilitating an American pullback in Iraq – the use of an international support group including Iran and Syria – poses serious problems that affect vital Israeli interests.

The growing strength of Islamic fundamentalism within the Palestinian national movement poses problems for Christians, who fear they will be deemed opponents of Islam and thereby risk becoming targets for Muslim extremists. This is exacerbated by the fact that Hamas holds substantial power and seeks to impose its radical Islamist identity on the entire population within the PA-controlled territories.

Discussing how Israel should respond to war crimes accusations diverts the agenda away from Hizballah – a terrorist group that committed war crimes in the recent war that far exceed in gravity and quantity all those Israel is accused of. Hizballah launched thousands of rocket and mortar attacks on northern Israel, deliberately targeting civilians in violation of the laws of war.

A nuclear Iran is even more of a threat than North Korea. In East Asia, North Korea lacks allies and can be contained by an alliance of surrounding states. However, in the Middle East, Iran's close links to Syria and its support for Hizballah make containment more difficult. In addition, in contrast to North Korea, Iran has large oil revenues to finance a major weapons program.

From North Africa to Iran, Hizballah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah's war has captured the imaginations of millions of Muslims. However, popularity of this sort in the Arab world seldom translates into anything substantive in political or strategic terms.

From July 13 to August 13, the Israel Police reported 4,228 rocket impacts inside Israel from rockets fired by Hizballah. No geographical area in the world has sustained such a large quantity of rocket strikes since the Iran-Iraq war in the early 1980s. Most rockets fired by Hizballah at Israel were taken from the Syrian arsenal rather than from Iran. On most occasions, the rocket warhead contained anti-personnel munitions, a mixture of explosives and steel balls.

Instead of the war being about Israel's right of self-defense, Hizballah was able to turn it around so that the issue on the international agenda became Israel's destruction of Lebanon. Israel should have been seen as the victim. We were being attacked. We were the ones who fulfilled all of the requirements of the game. We were true to the international border, we restrained ourselves, we held back. Why should it be that once we start attacking, we immediately start to lose.

In May 2000, Israel completed a full withdrawal from Lebanon in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 425 from 1978. Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah, however, the "liberator of the South," did not recognize the new border. His patrons in Iran ordered continued jihad against Israel. The Israeli withdrawal in 2000 did not lead Hizballah to become just another political party, and the belief that this would occur was an illusion.

In 1978 France was the only country in the world that offered warm and sympathetic political refuge to the spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini. Nevertheless, in 1986, a series of terror attacks in the heart of Paris killed and wounded dozens of people. Behind the attacks was Hizballah operative Anis Nakash.

The U.S.-French draft resolution calls for a "full cessation of hostilities" by the warring parties. It demands the "immediate" halt by Hizballah of all attacks. Regarding Israel, there is also a demand for the "immediate" cessation of military operations; however, Israel is only expected to halt "offensive military operations."

As intense discussions continue on the terms of a "sustainable cease-fire" and a "robust international force" that would end the latest war in Lebanon and prevent renewed conflict, many of the elements suggested appear highly unrealistic. All of the elements envisioned in such a framework are highly problematic, to understate the case.

Discussions about security arrangements in Lebanon at the end of the war have included the proposal to station an international force in that country. Yet the UN has a very bad name in terms of confronting strong forces in areas where it is stationed.

For the past fifteen years, Middle East peace-making has been dominated by two consecutive, illusory, political paradigms. The first paradigm, encapsulated by the Oslo Accords of 1993, belonged to a vision in which it is believed that a solution exists to every problem.

The second paradigm – unilateral withdrawal – proposed that reality could be changed by withdrawing from it, by unilaterally disengaging from it.

Israel's current military operations to uproot Hizballah and to destroy it as a formidable military and terror organization is not merely an operation against another determined terror group like Hamas in Gaza. Hizballah has a disciplined, well-trained army with sophisticated weaponry, backed directly by Syria and Iran.

Since the 1982 Lebanon War, the United Nations Security Council has repeatedly demanded that all foreign forces leave Lebanese territory. This evacuation of outside armies and terrorist groups was rightly seen as the prerequisite for the pacification of the volatile Israel-Lebanon border and the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty.

The June 25 Palestinian attack from the Gaza Strip on an IDF military post inside Israel is directly connected to the Hamas-Fatah struggle over the "Prisoners Document," which may be put to a Palestinian referendum. The core of that document calls for the unification of all armed factions to carry out joint operations against Israel. What remains in dispute is who exactly will lead the new unified front.

The Iranians know they cannot win a war against the United States. Their stated policy is to deter the U.S. and its allies by threatening a war that will cause such damage at such a price that this option will become unacceptable. With this perspective, they are investing very smartly in deterrence enhancers and force multipliers instead of replacing obsolete equipment.

The elusiveness of a unifying Jordanian identity now provides a window of opportunity for the jihadists, for whom Jordan is to be the "Land of Mobilization and Fortitude" - the staging ground for the liberation of Palestine and the destruction of Israel.

Said Sayyam, the Palestinian interior minister in the Hamas government, has appointed the head of the Popular Resistance Committees, Jamal Abu Samhadana, to be in charge of building the core of a new Palestinian army. Formally, he will be under the overall supervision of the Interior Ministry.

If we trace the line between the West and the rest, Israel is on the same side as Europe, the U.S., Japan, and Australia. We defend the same values against the same enemies.Now it is imperative to defend our values and way of life against a new threat: Islamic extremism and terrorism.

Hamas' rise is likely to set back the "peace process" for years. Why should Hamas moderate in office, when its ideology is its raison d'etre? The Taliban, Iranian, Saddam and Assad regimes did not; neither did Arafat.

On December 27, 1962, President John F. Kennedy told Israeli Foreign Minister Golda Meir: "The United States has a special relationship with Israel in the Middle East really comparable only to what it has with Britain over a wide range of world affairs."

Had the February 22 attack on Saudi Arabia's largest oil complex at Abqaiq been successful, oil prices would have likely broken all records and might have caused a worldwide economic crisis.

The main reason for the delay in building the security fence was because the line of the fence was a major issue of political debate inside Israel. The government didn't want to build it, out of concern that any line on the ground would have a political meaning in future negotiations. In all government decisions it was emphasized that the line the army was building was only a security line and it would not be the line for future negotiations.

The massive electoral victory of Hamas in the Palestinian parliamentary elections has created an entirely new strategic reality for Israel which vastly increases the importance of the Jordan Valley (a desert zone almost devoid of population) for Israel's security in the near term.

The government of Israel could accept the roadmap because it differed from the Oslo process in one significant respect. In Oslo, the notion was that peace would bring security. The political process was to develop certain horizons for the Palestinian people, and hopes for a better future were to reduce the incentives and motivation for terrorism. But it didn't work.

Some Israeli opinion-makers, seeking to define Sharon's political legacy, are determined to transform him into a political dove due to his unilateral disengagement plan that pulled Israel out of Gaza. They claim that the "new" Sharon was willing to lead Israel in another major pullback - this time from at least 90 percent of the West Bank. This interpretation assumed the West Bank security fence would constitute Israel's eastern border.

When Arafat arrived in Gaza in 1994, there was a lot of hope that now the Palestinians would have a free media. However, the first thing the PLO did was to order an immediate crackdown on the Palestinian media. Many local journalists had their offices torched. Some were arrested, beaten, or had their equipment confiscated.

Arafat was the cement that held all the Palestinian factions together including, unofficially, the Muslim factions. This cement has now disappeared. All the divisions that we see in Palestinian society today, that have been there all along, have reemerged. He was able to control both the Fatah outsiders who came from Tunis, and those who were in the territories during the first intifada.

For the first time, Israeli defense experts are noting that groups identifying with al-Qaeda - or the global jihad - are determined to acquire operational footholds close to Israel's borders. The most dramatic sign was the November 9, 2005, suicide bombing of three Jordanian hotels in Amman by "al-Qaeda Mesopotamia" - the organization led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

The decision of the International Atomic Energy Agency on September 24, 2005, to declare Iran in non-compliance with respect to its obligations as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is a major diplomatic development, opening the door to consideration of Iran's nuclear weapons program by the UN Security Council.

Since becoming Iran's president in August, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who served in the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, has appointed fellow Revolutionary Guards members to the most key positions in his cabinet and administration, including his foreign and defense ministers.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing a new wave of domestic violence, with multiple bombings in the provinces of Khuzistan and Baluchistan in the past six months. Iran is ethnically diverse. While the recent terrorism may have some ethnic or sectarian component, Iranian nationalism trumps ethnic separatism.

The Bush administration had not agreed for some time with the Israeli position that Hamas be excluded from the upcoming Palestinian parliamentary elections. At Princeton University on September 30, 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was absolutely clear that Palestinian violence could not co-exist with Palestinian politics in the future. She also reiterated that Hamas was a terrorist organization.

The global oil market environment of very strong demand and very little spare capacity offers a huge opportunity to the radical jihadists. The terrorists believe that the best way to hurt the global Western economy is to go after oil.

Israeli assessments have pointed to both Fatah and Hamas as responsible for the murder of Gen. Musa Arafat - security advisor to PA Chairman Mahmud Abbas and former head of Military Intelligence and the National Security forces in Gaza - on September 7, 2005. However, ongoing Palestinian investigations have led some senior officials to assign responsibility to Mohammed Dahlan, the PA Minister of Civil Affairs and former head of PA Preventive Security in Gaza.

The Iranians are conducting a clandestine nuclear program in parallel to the public one, the aim of which is clearly the acquisition of nuclear weapons. The Israeli intelligence assessment speaks of three or four years; the Americans add another year or two to this timetable.

America's trade deficit with the Saudi kingdom (due largely to the purchase of crude) is likely to amount to over $30 billion in 2005, up sharply from about $16 billion in 2004.

The conservative Abdallah has managed to win the support of the majority of Saudis in his battle against the domestic militants inside the Saudi kingdom who have targeted the Saudi regime.

Remarkably, even as Israel completes its withdrawal from 21 settlements in the Gaza Strip, official Palestinian spokesmen are already making the argument that Gaza remains "occupied" territory. PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas stated that "the legal status of the areas slated for evacuation has not changed."

King Fahd de facto governed Saudi Arabia since the crowning of the sickly King Khalid in 1975 - until 1995 when Fahd himself suffered a debilitating stroke. Abdallah, Fahd's successor, is a conservative ascetic who was never considered corrupt by the population, unlike other members of the al-Saud family.

For the first time in Arab diplomatic history, the Jordanians drafted a peace proposal in March 2005 calling for normalization of relations with Israel before the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. King Abdullah's proposal omits past Arab preconditions to peace with Israel, such as a return to the 1949 Armistice lines and repatriation of Palestinian refugees.

Next year Finland will assume the EU's rotating presidency, making Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja a player in the organization's Middle Eastern policy. Tuomioja's views are representative of a deeper undercurrent in contemporary European criticism of Israel, one that combines factual ignorance and misconceptions about the Arab-Israeli conflict with latent animosity borne out of the Continent's millenarian legacy of anti-Semitism.

In the 1979-89 war in Afghanistan, the Islamic radical mujahidin asked for volunteers from all over the world to join the fight against the second largest superpower, in a manner quite similar to what we see today in Iraq. The members of Islamic radical terror groups are motivated by divine command and actually believe that God is sending them on their mission. It is not possible to compromise with such a group.

The rejection of the proposed European Union constitution in France and the Netherlands has weakened Europe's overall status and may influence Europe's role in the Middle East. While past EU policies have been heavily biased against Israel, as it enters a period of disarray, EU policies may become less threatening to Israel.

Despite the popular assumption that simply holding elections is a guarantee of moderation and responsible government, history is full of examples where democratic processes have been exploited by despots for very non-democratic purposes. We must all reject the inclusion of Hamas in the Palestinian political system.

Before the World Trade Towers and the Pentagon were attacked, there were eight countries supporting terrorism. Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and North Korea were involved in shipments of arms to terrorists. Saudi Arabia provided sanctuary, training, and funding for terrorist organizations.

This list has now been reduced to five countries, and some of these are in transformation as well, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to support Egypt's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and insisted that his country sell advanced missiles to Syria, while continuing to aid the nuclear development of Iran, particularly the Russian-built, 1,000-megawatt, Bushehr nuclear reactor.

Examination of the new Hamas strategy to join the political process within the Palestinian Authority led many analysts to posit that the terrorist organization is undergoing a pragmatic shift, whereby it has renounced terrorism in exchange for participation in the beginnings of Palestinian democracy.

In order for six million Israelis to face the quantitative asymmetric population imbalance with their potential enemies, they must maintain an asymmetrical qualitative edge. Through the evolutionary process of trial and error, Israel's defense industry has focused on innovative system applications using proven technologies, avoiding investments in major platforms (except for the Merkava tank which has a unique history).

Based on PA population projections, it is claimed that we have reached a point of population parity between Jews and Arabs in the land between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea, and that with such a high Arab growth rate, Jews would soon become a minority in the land.

The basic ideology of political Islam - which was adopted later by all radical groups - finds its origin within Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. During the 1940s the Muslim Brotherhood turned into a powerful extra-political force, leading a campaign of violence and assassinations that eventually brought about the Free Officers revolution in 1952, thus ending the sole liberal experience in Egypt's history.

After a first term marked by schizophrenic Iran policy initiatives, the Bush White House will soon develop a coordinated policy to promote peaceful regime change in Iran. The Bush administration is heartened by the apparent success of the Iraqi election and believes that Iranians are ready to exert their democratic rights.

The election of Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen), along with Israel's political and military pressure, has brought about a change in the Palestinian Authority's policy on continuing the "armed intifada." At the same time, the paramount interest of Hamas and Islamic Jihad is to reorganize and rebuild their capabilities after they were severely degraded by the Israel Defense Forces.

The new Palestinian leadership has decided implicitly to deny Arafat his wish to be recognized as a martyr, as someone who died in battle. This is probably the first step on the road to the de-Arafatization of the PLO and the PA. Abu Mazen wants to do a Sadat. Within six months of succeeding Nasser, Sadat changed the political lay of the land in Egypt, introducing new people and new policies in a dramatic manner.

On December 23, 2004, the Dutch Ministry of the Interior published a 60-page report entitled From Dawa to Jihad. Prepared by the Dutch general intelligence service (AIVD), it describes radical Islam and examines how to meet its threat to Dutch society. Among the close to one million Dutch Muslims, about 95 percent are moderates. This implies that there are up to 50,000 potential radicals.

In the attack on the American consulate in Jedda on December 6, for the first time, al-Qaeda mounted an assault on a "fortified" American facility rather than attacking soft targets. When it turned out that nearly all the victims were Muslims, many Saudis, who were at first pleased by the U.S. humiliation, strongly condemned al-Qaeda. Even the families of the four terrorists killed in the consulate's courtyard were denounced by their kin.

As part of the implementation of Oslo, Israel gave up 80 percent of Gaza on May 18, 1994. When we talk about disengagement from Gaza, this means withdrawal from the remaining 20 percent of the area. During my time as Commander of Southern Command in the years 2000-2003, there were more than 400 attempts by Palestinians to cross into Israel, all of which failed. Together with rebuilding the fence, a key security element was the creation of a one-kilometer security buffer zone.

Defense expenditures in Israel were less than 10 percent of GDP in the 1950s, climbing to 35 percent after the Yom Kippur War. After Israel signed the peace agreement with Egypt, defense expenditures leveled off while the economy kept growing, so the overall share of defense-related spending declined back down to 10 percent. In the 1980s, as a result of exposure of Israeli industries to competition, Israel shifted to new industries - moving from agriculture and textiles to high tech.

In the present government there are 10 Sunni Arabs, 14 Shi'ite Arabs, and 8 Kurds, plus 1 Turkoman and 1 Christian. The Kurds are all Sunnis, as is the Turkoman, making 19 Sunnis and 14 Shi'ites, which is very generous toward the Sunnis. Historically, Iraq has been ruled by Sunni Arabs who represent a minority of some 15-18 percent in a state where 55 percent are Shi'ites and 18 percent are Kurds.

Arafat's death generated new hopes in the international community that a "window of opportunity" had now opened in the Middle East peace process. Meanwhile, Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen), who was elected to succeed Arafat as the PLO chairman, faces grave challenges to his leadership. Arafat left to his successors a regime that necessarily - and unlike his absolutist pattern of governing - will be based on a broad coalition between the various political and terrorist factions.

When the IDF updated its military doctrine in 2003, Prof. Asa Kasher, Professor of Professional Ethics at Tel Aviv University, joined me on an ethics committee to craft principles on how to make moral and ethical decisions in Israel's operational campaign against terror. As we sought to formulate how to fight terror, we understood that the main asymmetry is in the values of the two societies involved in the conflict - in the rules they obey.

In light of Israel's planned disengagement from Gaza, to take place in 2005, and the termination of Yasser Arafat's hold on power, the eventual take-over of the Gaza Strip by Hamas certainly cannot be ruled out. Would a Gaza "Hamas-stan" become another al-Qaeda sanctuary in the future? In the past, al-Qaeda sought to establish itself wherever there was a security vacuum - in remote mountain areas or in economically weak, failed states.

The major increase in strategic oil reserves in the consuming countries could prevent the renewed use of oil as a weapon, as was the case during the Arab oil embargo of 1973. In addition, most of the Middle East's oil today flows eastward to Japan, Korea, and China, countries that are less likely to be prime targets in a dispute with Middle Eastern countries.

All activities performed by Israel during the first intifada as well as nowadays are based on law. Israel follows the emergency defense regulations enacted by the British in Mandatory Palestine in 1945. They are similar to those enacted by the British against the IRA in Northern Ireland.

The book, Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror, by "Anonymous," aims to spark a dramatic re-evaluation of American policy in the Middle East. Indeed, if one did not know of the author's expertise level, the facts and motivations behind the book's release, and the sources for its thesis, one might seriously entertain his central claim: that Islamists are at war with the West over its policies, not its culture or values.

Israel's security establishment insists there is no Israeli involvement in allegations that a Pentagon analyst provided Israel with secret documents relating to White House deliberations over Iran - as reported by CBS News. MK Danny Yatom (Labor), who served as head of the Mossad in the 1990s, disclosed on Israel Radio that there are rigid rules against any Israeli espionage activity on U.S. soil, particularly since the 1985 Pollard affair.

Hafez al-Assad was a master in using terrorist organizations to promote Syrian interests and achieve political gains that he couldn't otherwise accomplish. By using terror and local agents, Syria gained control over Lebanon and forced both Israel and America to leave. Yet there has been no Syrian involvement in operations inside Western countries since 1986.

Fifteen years ago the Berlin Wall fell and Europe woke up to a different world, one in which it suddenly became far less dependent on the United States for security, setting in motion a process that brought a kind of emancipation. It was hard for many Europeans to accept the kind of dependence they had on the U.S. during the Cold War.

The internal crisis in the Palestinian Authority over the leadership of Yasser Arafat has resulted in renewed efforts on his part to present himself at the end of the day as the only realistic partner for moving forward in the peace process. Arafat's hope for rehabilitation has many sources.

Israel has ended the Palestinian Authority's penetration of eastern Jerusalem and its control of the Muslim Waqf on the Temple Mount, restoring Jordanian religious administration of the Haram al-Sharif mosque compound.

For the first time since the Palestinian Authority was established in 1994, popular rage aimed at the "corrupt leadership" enjoys the backing of the most powerful militia in Gaza - the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Arafat's opponents support the holding of municipal elections and elections to the Palestinian parliament in order to remove the Old Guard from power.

The Bush administration never said that it went to war against Iraq in order to retaliate for the destruction of the World Trade Center and the attack on the Pentagon. It did warn that Iraq could transfer its prohibited weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups, especially to al-Qaeda. Is there a real risk in the transfer of weapons of mass destruction from rogue states in the Middle East to terror groups?

As a commander of IDF combat units, I have never met with even one incidence of refusal to obey orders or lack of motivation. The main problem is sometimes exactly the opposite - my troops suffer from overmotivation. Today, regular units do not devote the same amount of time to training as they did five or ten years ago. They are too busy getting experience in the Gaza Strip and in Judea and Samaria on daily missions.

There is no foundation for a change in Israel's policy of nuclear ambiguity under present circumstances, and the topic is not on the agenda. Under the terms of a 1969 agreement with the U.S. government, Israel has refrained from making any declarations about its nuclear weapons capability, or from testing devices. The threat to Israel has not diminished much in the past five decades and hatred of Israel in the Arab and Moslem worlds remains intense.

Developments in Saudi Arabia and Iraq should cause oil prices to decline further and to reach $30-35 a barrel. Iraq’s southern oil terminal exports are back to 1.0 million b/d after the bombing of three pipelines by al-Qaeda terrorists led to the temporary stoppage of all Iraqi oil exports. The Shi’ite territories in southern Iraq are hostile to al-Qaeda’s Sunni Wahhabi militants.

An insidious but steady drumbeat can be discerned over the last several weeks charging that the primary interest of the Bush administration in going to war against Saddam Hussein was to defend Israeli security interests. This newest wave is often more subtle but also far more mainstream than what was voiced in this regard just last year. Yet from Israel's perspective, by 2003 the Iraqi Army had been severely degraded in both military manpower and equipment.

More than a dozen Palestinian reporters have been attacked since September 2003. The three major PLO-controlled dailies - Al Quds, Al Hayam, and Al Hayat al Jadeeda - are Palestinian versions of the Soviet-era Pravda. Since Israel’s Operation Defensive Shield in March 2002 that reduced Arafat’s control in West Bank cities, Palestinian journalists and reformers have become more outspoken.

The main reason that Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan was overwhelmingly defeated in the Likud is that party members were not convinced that the plan would improve Israel's security situation. In fact, the majority of voters thought the plan was a reward for terrorism. Voters did not consider the referendum a vote of confidence in Ariel Sharon. Sharon remains extremely popular within the Likud.

The concept of "whistle blower" refers to individuals who go public with information on corrupt practices and violations of the law, enabling the constituted authorities to hold the culprits accountable. In contrast, by seeking to impose his personal views of Israeli security requirements on the elected representatives of the Israeli government, Vanunu acted in violation of the law and the core principles of democracy.

President Bush's April 14, 2004, letter to Prime Minister Sharon represents a significant shift in U.S. policy, as compared to the Clinton Parameters advanced by the former president after the failed Camp David Summit of July 2000 and in subsequent months. In his plan, Clinton provided conditional approval of settlement blocs, but insisted that there needed to be "territorial swaps" of land from pre-1967 Israel in exchange for any West Bank land Israel would retain.

According to public opinion polls, Palestinians support an end to rampant corruption and lawlessness, which they increasingly associate with Yasser Arafat. A Palestinian poll released on February 9, 2004, revealed that only 27 percent of the Palestinian public expressed "strong support" for Arafat.

The survey results clearly show that American voters, regardless of party affiliation, ideology, and religion, trust Israel in a peace agreement to protect the freedom of religion for all faiths and that Israel has the right to protect itself with defensible borders. Conversely, American voters don't trust the Palestinian Authority in any future agreement to protect the freedom of religion for all faiths.

Since the Palestinians could not sue Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as a contentious case - because the Palestinians are not a state and because Israel has not agreed to the jurisdiction of the court - the Palestinians used their influence in the General Assembly, which then asked for an advisory opinion.

If Israel comes to the inevitable conclusion that the Palestinian Authority is not ready, prepared, or willing to make the necessary efforts to implement the road map through an agreement, then we will take unilateral steps in this direction. The purpose will be to reduce the number of Palestinians with whom we are in direct contact on a daily basis to the minimum, and to shape a line of disengagement.

Israeli society is the first place where legitimacy is needed for military actions. Many of the questions raised regarding our actions come from the Israeli people. Being raised on democracy and pluralism, being raised as an open society, Israeli society asks questions that we must answer with the right answers.

After 35 years of living with the Palestinians and facing this blatant, ugly, terrorist wave, Israel had no choice but to put up a barrier as an important element in an overall defensive system that would intercept those on their way to blow themselves up among us. When the Palestinians speak among themselves about occupation, they speak about Israel occupying Tel Aviv and Haifa, not Judea and Samaria.

There is growing evidence that Fatah, the Palestinian faction that today dominates the PLO, may not remain the power center of Palestinian politics in the post-Arafat era. Hamas is preparing itself to inherit the Palestinian Authority. At the Cairo talks in December 2003, for the first time, Hamas openly and confidently challenged the basic Palestinian view that the PLO is the sole and exclusive representative of the Palestinian people.

Arafat is not a nationalist. If he was, he could have had a state in 1968, in 1979, at several points in the 1980s, and certainly in the year 2000. But he is not interested in the well-being of the Palestinian people, he's interested in the Palestinian cause. In many ways, one of the keys to understanding Arafat is that he is basically an old-fashioned Islamist, influenced by his early connections with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

The Libyan declaration that it was ending its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, dismantling existing capabilities and facilities, and opening up its territory for inspection marks an important step in reducing threats and instability in the region. As in the case of the recent Iranian declaration that it has accepted the conditions of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the main test lies in the implementation of the Libyan pledge of transparency, both immediately and in the long term.

Despite increasing Palestinian terror, U.S. Middle East envoy David Satterfield "slammed" Israel on December 11 for continued "restrictions on the movement" of Palestinian civilians, according to a report in Ha'aretz. In addition, Secretary of State Colin Powell urged Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom on December 12 to do more to alleviate Palestinian hardship, according to the Washington Post.

Israel has no strategic depth and could face a situation in which its air superiority was jeopardized by guerrilla forces coming from neighboring countries just a short distance away, or even from the Palestinian Authority. Since a number of hostile countries now possess long-range missiles, Israel must take into consideration the fact that all of its air bases are within range of enemy weapons.

A self-appointed Israeli negotiating team, claiming to speak in the name of a majority of Israelis, concluded the Geneva Accord with a Palestinian delegation. It conceded almost all the security arrangements for the West Bank and Gaza Strip sought by past Israeli governments. The Geneva Accord leaves Israel with no safety net in the event that the agreement is violated by the Palestinian side. It is as though its architects learned nothing from the collapse of the Oslo Agreement.

The IDF has decided to teach commanders about international law in order to enable them to more effectively carry out their missions. The IDF has developed a code of conduct that is a combination of international law, Israeli law, and the IDF's own traditional ethical code - ruach tzahal, "the spirit of the IDF." The IDF has developed simulated educational computer programming.

As long as Yasser Arafat remains the sovereign of the Palestinian entity, there is not the slightest chance for real peace. Peace, for Arafat, means one big Palestine from the Mediterranean to the Iraqi desert - including Jordan, the West Bank, and Israeli Arabs. The Oct. 4 bombing of a Haifa restaurant that killed 21 people was carried out by Islamic Jihad. Without Syria's support, it would be very difficult for this terror organization to function.

As of late September 2003, according to the head of Israeli military intelligence, Maj.-Gen. Zeevi-Farkash, orders for terrorist attacks were actually coming directly from Arafat's headquarters. As early as 1997, Arafat authorized Hamas and Islamic Jihad attacks; he formed an umbrella group together with these Islamists organizations called the "Nationalist and Islamic Forces" that coordinated attacks against Israel, during the recent intifada, under the leadership of Fatah.

Roadmap requirements have been categorically ignored both by the Palestinian Authority and the Quartet. This was due partly to the fact that the hudna, a temporary truce offered by the terrorist organizations, never fulfilled the terms of the roadmap's cease-fire.

Combating terrorist financing is one of the most critical fronts in both the war on terror and the implementation of the roadmap to peace. In both cases, cutting off the flow of funds to terrorists hinges on focusing on logistical and financial support networks. Too often security, intelligence, and law enforcement services - and certainly politicians and diplomats - make distinctions between terrorist "operatives" and terrorist "supporters."

The new Iraqi Sunni resistance organization al-Jama'a al-Salafiya al-Mujahida offers a radical Islamic platform that contains many points in common with al-Qaeda. It views Americans not just as modern crusaders waging a religious war in the name of Christianity against Islam, but as an infidel people who believe in a new infidel religion - democracy - that is striving to achieve world hegemony.

Iran presents the most dangerous existential threat today to Israel as a Jewish state and it is also a threat to the Israel-Arab peace process. There is a very serious Iranian effort to develop a nuclear bomb, and the Russians have played a very significant role here. Without the transfer of nuclear technologies from Russia, Iran could not maintain its current pace of progress in the development of nuclear weapons. Tehran often emerges as the source of funding behind terrorist attacks in Israel.

Iran has enjoyed a substantial windfall from oil prices, which has more than matched its additional budgetary expenses and has enabled it to establish a special "fund for future generations." As far as the Pentagon is concerned, there is hardly any difference between the radical Iranian clergy who control Iran's policy and President Muhammad Khatami's "so-called reformist government."

The first sentence of Phase I of the roadmap is crystal clear, demanding that "the Palestinians immediately undertake an unconditional cessation of violence." The roadmap's cease-fire is not contingent upon Israeli performance on any other issue. Any linkage between the question of Palestinian violence and Israeli implementation of the roadmap makes violence part of the negotiating process.

In an interview in Jordan on June 21, Iraq's acting oil minister, Thamir al-Ghadhban, said, "Restoration of the [Iraqi] oil industry will take some time, at least a year and a half." Currently, Iraq is producing about 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) from the old northern fields (Kirkuk) and only 300,000 b/d from the enormously rich southern (largely Rumeila) fields.

There are five dimensions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, all taking place simultaneously: the military activity on the ground; the narrative; the legitimacy of the tactics, methods, and means; the legitimacy of the leadership; and the capabilities of both societies to sustain the conflict.

The suicide bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that left dozens dead - including 7-10 U.S. citizens - should not have come as a surprise. There has been increasing evidence that al-Qaeda, which took credit for the attack, has viewed the Saudi kingdom as one of its main areas of refuge since the U.S. victory against the Taliban in Afghanistan, for a number of reasons: Historically, al-Qaeda grew from Saudi roots.

According to a 345-page report prepared by Standard & Poor's and the Democracy Council, the Palestinian Authority has approximately $600 million invested in 79 commercial ventures worldwide. The report fails to address other monies controlled by the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization.

Iran is much closer to acquiring a military nuclear capability than supposed, due to its unexpected progress in developing uranium enrichment facilities using centrifuge technology. By admitting that it has a uranium enrichment program, Iran is basically telling the world that it indeed has military intentions.

Despite the formation of a new cabinet, Yasser Arafat remains the head of the Palestinian Authority, with powers over finances, security, and future negotiations. Pro-Arafat forces dominate the new cabinet. Some 12-14 ministers are expected to be old Arafat appointees, while only 4-6 ministers will owe their loyalty to Abu Mazen.

In seeking democratization for the Middle East, the U.S. sees as its models Japan and Germany following World War II, both defeated in war and reconstructed in its aftermath. Let us remember that Israel paved the way for the Americans by halting Iraq's nuclear plans in 1981, a demonstration of strategic cooperation between Israel and the U.S.

"Television loves emotions and cares less about facts. The Palestinians don't care about losing people, and the Israelis can't fight that," said one senior international news organization representative.

Beyond the Iraqi missile threat to Israel in the 1990s, missile threats to Israel have emerged from Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Libya. Yet many of the New Middle East missile powers are determined to project their power toward Europe. Missile suppliers in the Middle East include North Korea, China, and Russian and Indian companies.

The lower standard of municipal services in the Arab neighborhoods is a consequence of, not the cause for, the boycott of the municipal political process dictated by the Palestinian leadership. Arab politicians could have made their mark in municipal politics just as ultra-Orthodox Jews have in Jerusalem, and as disadvantaged minority groups have done in democracies elsewhere.

Hizballah is an international terrorist organization that has been killing Americans and other Westerners for decades. Indeed, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said if al-Qaeda is the B-team of terrorism, Hizballah is the A-team. Hizballah has a very large capability to do harm throughout northern Israel, with hundreds of Grad missiles, dozens of short-range missiles like the "Fajar 3" and "Fajar 5," and longer-range rockets of Iranian make that can reach 40-70 km.

During the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq's use of El-Hussein missiles, an upgraded Scud with a range of 600 km., meant they could reach not only Teheran but Tel Aviv - and we realized we had no way to stop them. The soul of any missile defense system is not the missile; it is the radar, its main sensor.

On the day after the Israeli elections, in a move both surprising and personally dangerous, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak telephoned Prime Minister Sharon to congratulate him on his election victory and to invite him to a summit meeting after the establishment of the new Israeli government. The Egyptian press later stated that the meeting would take place in Sharm el-Sheikh.

Throughout its history, Israel has built a conventional army that has been quite successful and has served as a deterrent to those who sought to attack it. The neighboring Arab governments and armies know from their experience in the wars of 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and 1982 that it is very difficult to win a war against Israel on the battlefield.

One may legitimately support or challenge Israeli settlements in the disputed territories, but they are not illegal, and they have neither the size, the population, nor the placement to seriously impact upon the future status of the disputed territories and their Palestinian population centers.

The recent Turkish elections were more a protest vote against economic difficulties and corruption, not a wish to embrace Islamic radicalism. When the Islamist prime minister Necemettin Erbakan took power in 1996, the Turkish military, which regards itself as the ultimate guardian of the secularist democratic tradition of modern Turkey's founder, Kemal Ataturk, elegantly eased Erbakan out of power.

A country -- whether it be Israel, or the United States in its fight with al-Qaeda -- whose army is involved in fighting a terrorist organization which has no state and no boundaries, has to be able to carry out those acts necessary to deal with terror. What happens if the police see a suicide bomber who opens his jacket and shows his explosive belt? Can the Israeli police kill him? He hasn't done anything.

The Palestinian assertion that Sunni and Shiite terrorist groups do not cooperate is baseless and historically wrong. Recent history has demonstrated that there are few religious-ideological barriers in the world of international terrorism. The secular Ba'athist regime in Syria works closely with Hizballah, as a secular Ba'athist regime in Iraq has developed ties to al-Qaeda.

Syria remains one of the worst state-sponsors of international terrorism, providing a haven for leaders of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas. Syria sponsors Hizballah in Lebanon, an international terrorist organization with a global reach that, before 9/11, had killed more Americans than any other terrorist group.

The recuperation of Iraq's oil industry could prove a major threat to the oil-dependent Saudi economy. Saudi per capita income has fallen from about $23,000 in the early 1980s to about $7,000 last year. Prince Abdallah has attempted to reform the Saudi economy and reduce expenditures on subsidies and perks, including the costly stipends paid to 7,000 royal princes.

Arafat is determined that, within any peace agreement, Israel must absorb approximately 300,000 Palestinians from Lebanon, and that the independent Palestinian state must be free to absorb more than half a million more Palestinians.

Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and Ariel Sharon realized in 1991 that if Jordan were Palestine, Iraqi forces could be deployed very close to Israel's border. A number of Israeli leaders felt that Israeli deterrence was damaged by the policy of restraint in 1991. If Israel did not react to the use of gas or chemical weapons against it, then the lessons of the Holocaust would be meaningless.

From the outset of the current Palestinian intifada two years ago, children and teenagers have assumed an integral role. Regrettably, this role is not adequately addressed in the recent Amnesty International report entitled "Killing the Future Children in the Line of Fire."

Since Iraq's August 1990 invasion of Kuwait and the 1991 Gulf War that followed, Arab diplomats at the United Nations have charged the international community with a policy of "double standards" regarding UN actions against Iraq for failing to comply with UN Security Council resolutions.

The optimistic assumptions and mechanisms that guided Palestinian-Israeli negotiations under the "Oslo" process proved unrealistic and fatally flawed. This failure is reflected in two years of Palestinian terrorism and the catastrophic leadership of the Palestinian Authority. The realization that the core of the conflict remains the rejection of Israel as a Jewish state has fundamentally changed the framework for negotiations.

The World Conference Against Racism in Durban was originally planned as a platform to focus on the world's underrepresented human rights causes. Yet what was supposed to be a conference against racism turned into a conference of racism against Israel and the Jewish people.

The present Iraqi capability is relatively limited. According to recent U.S. estimates, Iraq may have a dozen or two Scud missiles that were not caught by UN inspectors. They are working to attain nuclear capability but do not have it at the moment. However, both the Iraqis and the Iranians have chemical warheads, and both probably have biological weapons as well.

Many television viewers were surprised when U.S. Senator Bob Graham declared on "Meet the Press" on July 7 that there are "more urgent" priorities facing the United States than dealing with Saddam Hussein.

Arafat exercised a willing suspension of control at the start of the intifada, allowing irregular forces to attack while formal security forces remained on the sidelines. One of the major concepts of Oslo was that in the end there would be a strong, centralized Palestinian authority/ government. This concept is gone.

When Yasser Arafat unleashed terrorist violence against Israel in September 2000, he was applying mistaken lessons from the conflicts in Lebanon and Kosovo, according to Brig. Gen. Eival Gilady, speaking at the inaugural lecture of the Institute for Contemporary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs on May 27, 2002.

As a result of Israel's Operation "Defensive Shield," new documents have been uncovered from Palestinian offices that directly link the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with financial backing of terrorist attacks against Israel. The Saudis have repeatedly denied such connections. Last month, for example, Saudi state television held a telethon for the families of "Palestinian martyrs" that raised over $100 million.

The Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank was the scene of some of the harshest fighting during Israel's "Defensive Shield" operation. It contained an extensive military infrastructure for terrorist operations against Israel that involved all of the main Palestinian terrorist groups: Islamic Jihad, Fatah, and Hamas. Since October 2000, Jenin-based terrorist networks were responsible for 28 attempted suicide attacks against Israel, of which 23 were actually executed.

The Arab summit must not alter the only agreed terms of reference for the Arab-Israeli peace process -- UN Security Council Resolution 242. The whole debate over whether Israel allows PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat to travel to the Arab summit meeting in Beirut presupposes that this gathering could potentially improve the chances of restoring Arab-Israeli peace negotiations.

A revealing Washington Post news story on February 26, 2002, reported a striking American public opinion poll claiming that Americans rated Saudi Arabia above North Korea and Syria as a state-supporter of international terrorism. While 64 percent of Americans viewed Iran as a state supporting terrorism, a full 54 percent shared the same perception regarding Saudi Arabia. (North Korea was viewed this way by 38 percent, and Syria received 35 percent, in the Groeneman Research and Consulting poll.)

A number of observers of Middle East diplomacy still believe that a full political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is within reach. Advocates of this school of thought point to the purported breakthroughs reached during the Taba talks in January 2001. If they had a few more weeks, so they argue, an Israeli-Palestinian final-status deal could have been struck.

Both Iraq and Iran would have a difficult time projecting their influence in the Arab-Israeli sector of the Middle East, if Yasser Arafat was not seeking to draw them into his conflict with Israel and, thereby, jeopardize regional stability. Speaking to his Knesset faction on February 4, 2002, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon detailed the continuing efforts of the Palestinian Authority to smuggle weaponry into the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Elie Hobeika knew the truth of Israel's innocence in the Sabra and Shatilla massacres, and for that reason many interested parties wanted him silenced. Elie Hobeika, the former Lebanese Christian militia leader, was killed by a car bomb outside his home in a Beirut suburb on January 24, 2002.

The twin attacks by Fatah gunmen on a Hadera bat mitzvah celebration last week and on Israeli civilian pedestrians in Jerusalem this week have brought back into focus the military wings of the Fatah organization and the responsibility of its leadership, particularly Yasser Arafat and Marwan Barghouti, for these operations. Ironically, West Bank Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti has been touted over the last year in the Western press as one of the possible successors to Yasser Arafat.

Last week's seizure by Israeli naval commandos in the Red Sea of the Palestinian ship, Karine-A, with its cargo of over 50 tons of Iranian weapons and explosives, reveals an entirely new network of cooperation in Middle Eastern terrorism.

During the U.S. military build-up for America's anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan, speculation grew over a possible political by-product of the war: a U.S.-Iranian accommodation after years of mutual hostility. The apparent driving force of this shift was the shared opposition in the U.S. and Iran to the Taliban, who had mistreated Afghanistan's Shi'ite minority in an expression of extreme Sunni fundamentalist doctrine.

Just one day before Yasser Arafat hoped to attend Bethlehem's Christmas-eve celebrations, Israel arrested an operative of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) in Haifa, who was planning a terrorist attack in the heart of the city.

Three times in recent decades the United States has approached Arab countries to join broad coalitions in support of military objectives: ousting the Soviet Union from Afghanistan in the 1980s, ousting Iraq from Kuwait in 1991, and the current war on terrorism. In each case, efforts to garner Arab support created tensions with the U.S. commitment to maintain Israel's "qualitative military edge" against all potential adversaries.

In the aftermath of the December 1-2 Hamas bombings in Jerusalem and Haifa that left 27 Israeli civilians dead and 175 wounded, the Israeli government designated the Palestinian Authority "an entity that supports terrorism." This determination, even if only declaratory, closed a chapter in Israeli-Palestinian relations.

Secretary of State Colin Powell's much-anticipated unveiling of America's vision for the Middle East (University of Louisville, Nov. 19) nudged U.S. policy in a positive direction in certain respects, but is unlikely to meet the expectations which preceded it. The speech will not placate the rage of the Arab street, which has already been significantly quieted as a result of the emerging American victory against the Taliban.

Ironically, the post-September 11 international environment has not reduced Syria's traditional support of international terrorism, but rather led Damascus to follow a dangerously escalatory policy.

White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer stated on October 26 that the anthrax sent to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle was not necessarily manufactured by a foreign government. Yet, Fleischer did not rule out foreign involvement either. One Middle Eastern state with vast proven experience in biological warfare is Iraq, which actually tested biological agents on Iranian prisoners in the 1980s.

The October 22 request by the U.S. State Department spokesman that Israel "immediately" withdraw from and not return to Palestinian-controlled areas (Area A) implies that such actions are in violation of the Oslo Accords, that they hamper the prospects for a return to negotiations, and that they threaten the wider American war on terrorism. None of these implications are correct.

"From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." -- President George Bush, Address to a Joint Session of Congress, September 20, 2001 President Bush has clearly defined the scope of the war on terrorism to include not only terrorist organizations, but the states that support them.

President George W. Bush was very cautious about the marks he gave to Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat on the latter's cease-fire efforts. True, Bush stated: "I was pleased to see that Mr. Arafat is trying to control the radical elements within the Palestinian Authority, and I think the world ought to applaud him for that" (emphasis added).

The first anniversary of the current Palestinian Intifada was marked on September 28, 2001, throughout parts of the Arab world. The date was chosen to correspond to Ariel Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount one year ago, when he served as head of Israel's parliamentary opposition. Because of the alleged proximity of his visit to the Al-Aqsa Mosque (he actually did not get near the Muslim shrines), the Palestinians called their uprising: the Al-Aqsa Intifada.

After witnessing the September 11 terrorist assault on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, many American analysts have been seeking to understand the source of the intense hatred against the United States that could have motivated an act of violence on such an unprecedented scale.

Tremendous intellectual energies have recently been expended in trying to ascertain why PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat refused President Clinton's proposals for Israeli concessions at Camp David and in subsequent negotiations. Some have concluded that the main problems were tactical, and could be overcome in a renewed diplomatic effort.

Last month's Palestinian draft resolution at the UN Security Council again described the West Bank and Gaza Strip as "occupied Palestinian territories." References to Israel's "foreign occupation" also appear in the Durban Draft Declaration of the UN World Conference Against Racism.